The Drunken Lizard Pub

I have been playing the game for over 60 hours (that's almost three days of my life!!!) and have noticed that the to hit probability is a bit dull.

For example I have a 60% to hit probability, which means in two tries I should at least get one hit right?, NO way, I have given it like 7 tries and have not been able to hit my oponent. Instead my oponent had a 30% to hit probability and it has already hit me twice....

Very Disapointing....

Happend To anybody else?

Yes, we've had numerous people claim there is a flaw in accuracy rolls, however nothing has been proven...no hard data presented, just these "gut feelings" that people feel they aren't hitting as often as they should.

The code is pretty simple actually- that percentile number that is shown for your ToHit Probability is the same variable that is immediately checked against a random 1-100 integer. There is literally no possible way the system could be flawed, unless your machine is throwing weighted numbers (which would be ridiculous as well as beyond our control).

Seriously, just because the odds of hitting are 60% doesn't mean you WILL hit it 7, 10 or 20 tries (but you're very likely to). I'll repeat myself here and bring up the coin example again: if you flip a coin 5 times and get all heads, does that mean the probability of getting heads is 100%?

It's just the way the math works - I'm sure you get a sequence of favorable rolls every so often, but you probably don't notice it.

I have been skeptical of these comments before, but when I started trying to keep track, I noticed that I was getting similar results: printed probability to-hit of 49% getting about 1 in 6 results.

THEN I noticed that my character often hits -without causing damage-, about half the time in the dark, which I enjoy using for cover.

This explains the difference in perceived results, I believe. Looking at the main screen, I see damage numbers floating up much more rarely than the printed odds indicate, but many of those turns were hits I just didn't notice because the text doesn't change color down in the scrolling textbox.

I think I'll hold on to that accuracy amulet after all, BW! (I'm up to five amulets, switching is getting to be a major UI issue . . . .)

Use Predator Sight if you want to hit successfully (i.e.score damage more often) in the dark, krisklef. Cat's Eyes works well, too, but Predator Sight is the bee's knees.

acoustibop, I do use predator sight, and think that it is so much better than cat's eyes, that I usually get the elemental up early and skimp on the divination until I get to Blackwater

But the problem seems to be with the amount of hits that actually score damage. I haven't noticed if this is due to an ability shortfall (axe skill is 9) or low strength (only 15 at this point) but I seem to hit more often for no damage as the game progresses. The baddies hit me plenty for no damage in the early game and then seem to get more scores.

Nothing beats the torch exploit for fighting in darkness.

Thanks Everyone for your explanations, I know aboute the math issue, and I also understand the fact that having a 60% probability does not mean you will hit 6 out of 10 tries, but it is still anoying (sorry for miss spellings English is not my first language) it is annoying to have an oponnent with 30% probability hit you 3 times in a row, and your character with 60% miss all of those times.... Perhaps something could be done about this in Book II. Another question, what is the armor rating used for?, for exmaple if I have 20 Armor rating what doesit mean?, how does it affect my gameplay?.

Thanks again for your answers